THE LATEST: New hospitalization projections released

For audio of Saturday's follow-up conference call with reporters, click here.

Figures released Saturday show the prohibition on dine-in service at restaurants and bars and the subsequent issuance of a stay-at-home order had tangible effects on the state’s number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, according to Gov. Gina Raimondo and Department of Health Director Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott.

But they said the numbers also show that hospitalization spikes on particular dates have been linked to occasions such as Easter and Passover, when Rhode Islanders may have broken social distancing mandates to gather in groups.

And given the sunny, warm weekend weather, there is concern over future increases in the numbers – even as May 9 continues to be eyed for the lifting of the stay-at-home order and the initiation of the reopening process.

“I’ll be honest with you, I’m very much worried about this weekend,” she said, adding: “[The stay-at-home order] may not be lifted on May 8 if everybody rushes out today … I’m asking you not to do it. I know patience is wearing thin.”

Regarding the phased nature of the reopening process, she later said: “We cannot flip the switch. We have to turn the dial.”

By the numbers

Seventeen more Rhode Islanders have died in connection with COVID-19, according to Saturday’s data update from the Rhode Island Department of Health, bringing the state’s toll thus far to 296.

The 17 new deaths include one person in their 40s, one person in their 50s, two people in their 60s, five people in their 70s, four people in their 80s and four people in their 90s. Fifteen were residents of congregate care facilities such as nursing homes.

During a follow-up conference call with reporters, Alexander-Scott said approximately 215 of the state’s 296 deaths to date have been associated with nursing homes. Another five are associated with other congregate care settings, such as group homes.

An additional 327 cases of COVID-19 have been identified statewide as of Saturday’s update, bringing Rhode Island’s total to 9,289 since March 1. Overall, 69,928 Rhode Islanders have been tested for the disease – including 3,280 new tests included in Saturday’s update – with 60,639 testing negative.

As of Saturday afternoon, 333 Rhode Islanders were hospitalized due to the virus, with 80 in ICUs and 54 intubated. Initially, the hospitalization figure was 316, but that was revised upward shortly thereafter due to new reporting from hospitals. To date, 531 people have been discharged from the state’s hospitals following treatment for the virus.

On the city and town level, Providence continues to have the state’s most positive cases by far, with 2,958. It is followed in the case count by Pawtucket (903), Cranston (537), North Providence (484), Central Falls (469), East Providence (374), Warwick (364), Woonsocket (316), Cumberland (197), Smithfield (169), Johnston (156), West Warwick (142), North Kingstown (141) and Coventry (107).

Modeling update

Raimondo shared an update regarding the state’s data projections and modeling, utilizing two charts during her presentation.

The first outlines daily  hospitalization data from March 13 through the end of April, with dots representing daily hospital admissions related to the virus and a blue and green line showing the trend over the last several weeks.

Raimondo said during the early days of the crisis, modeling showed “some pretty scary scenarios” that involved “really devastating numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.”

The chart, she said, points to the success of two major social distancing measures taken to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus – the prohibition on dine in service in mid-March, and the enactment of the stay-at-home order at the end of March.

Both “meaningfully” changed the hospitalization trajectory in the data, Raimondo said, noting that the positive effects of each were seen roughly 14 days later in keeping with the typical infection timeframe of the virus. The chart shows the latest trend – which Raimondo has described as a “plateau” – beginning around April 14.

“A plateau isn’t a perfectly straight line … but we are in the business of looking at a trend,” she said.

The second chart outlines projected hospitalizations in Rhode Island through May 19. It includes two potential courses – a green line that is a “sustained, though gradually decreasing plateau,” as has been seen in Massachusetts, and a purple line that represents a “more traditional bell curve” of the type often seen with infectious diseases.

While there is uncertainty over which course the hospitalization numbers will take, Raimondo said: “What we do know is that it’s likely to be one of these two courses and that it’s not likely to start moving upward again.” She added, however, that the projections only cover the next two-plus weeks and are based on current circumstances.

The first chart shared Saturday shows comparatively high numbers of hospitalizations around April 21, and the governor said those are believed to be tied to gatherings of people around the Easter and Passover holidays.

Rental assistance

Additionally on Saturday, Raimondo announced the launch of a $1.5 million initiative to provide emergency rental assistance for low-income renters who have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis and are at risk of homelessness.

The assistance – which can be applied for at HousingHelpRI.com or by calling the United Way’s 211 helpline – will be provided in the form of grants of up t0 $5,000. Raimondo said the money can be used to cover past-due rental costs and related fees.

“This is not money to help you make next month’s rent. This is if you are behind and facing eviction,” she said, although she reiterated that eviction proceedings are not currently being adjudicated in the state’s court system.